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A causal perspective on model robustness: case studies in health and sensor data 10.17863/CAM.93093 Hasthanasombat, Apinan Mascolo, Cecilia Robustness of predictive deep models is a challenging problem with many implications. It is of particular importance when models are used in safety-critical applications, such as healthcare. However, there is yet to be agreement on a comprehensive definition on what it means for a model to be robust, and a theory on why these issues arise. Given the general nature of the problem, existing work related to robustness is spread across different areas of research. Existing research has considered a range of robustness aspects, for instance robustness to small input perturbations, which arise from the study of adversarial examples, but there is also robustness to different domains for the same task, and robustness issues which arise from object placement, transplanting, lighting, weather conditions, or object style, as some examples. This thesis explores a formulation of robustness in terms of the assumed structural causal model (SCM) which generates the observed data.The SCM allows these different types of robustness issues to be viewed in a unifying way. Using this view, this work furthers the connection between prediction robustness and the assumed structural causal model by suggesting that optimising for prediction performance across a diverse set of distributions from the same SCM will move the model closer to the causal predictor of the target variable, providing a theoretical foundation to optimise purely for prediction in the setting where training and testing data are not independently and identically distributed. Formulating robustness in this way suggests that large deep models should, in general, be more susceptible to robustness issues; while some of these issues have been observed in applications such as computer vision, it has been less discussed in others. We investigate the robustness of state-of-the-art deep (SotA) classifiers in human activity recognition using a new proposed benchmark informed by the causal formulation, and show that a simpler model is at least as robust as SotA deep models whilst being at least ten times faster to train. The causal view of robustness additionally hints at the idea that less data can be beneficial for robustness, contrary to popular belief that more data is always better. To test this idea, a data selection algorithm is proposed based on inverting the idea of a popular causal inference procedure for tabular data. The robustness of a model trained on the selected subset of data is evaluated through synthetic and semi-synthetic data experiments. Under certain conditions the data subset improves robustness and subsequently data efficiency. University of Cambridge 2022-09-01 Thesis Doctoral Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) eng Cambridge Trust and King's College https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/345671 https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/7429e762-89cb-4108-bcf6-6065ea1f23f7/download ac92e4f157d499d97624ad4fd62aa154 https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/ causality, model robustness