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Modelling the future mass balance of glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen, Svalbard for a range of socio-economic trajectories 10.17863/CAM.8749 Cogbill, Rhiannon Willis, Ian Spitsbergen, Svalbard, is covered by approximately 22,000 km2 of glaciers, which are particularly sensitive to the enhanced global warming expected over the region (Nuth et al., 2010; Miao et al., 2014). Loss of these glaciers has global, regional and local implications. The study transiently models the 2006-2100 climatic mass balance of glaciers in Northwest Spitsbergen for different socio-economic scenarios using a low-complexity, tractable approach. Glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen is projected to experience 31.3 ? 17.3% volume loss (1.11 ? 0.61 mm of sea level rise) from 2006-2100. The model represents the future patterns well but constantly underestimates volume loss. Overall the study emphasises the uncertain future for glaciated Northwest Spitsbergen, and the place for low-complexity modelling in current research. University of Cambridge 2015-09-29 Thesis Masters Master of Philosophy (MPhil) en https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/263407 https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/b79f799e-0985-4a70-b0dc-75bc22a50e23/download 322515e6c9d9fc7aaf714640ff5d27e1 https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/dc3b0d09-d3dc-462e-a1d9-4ebc788dd29d/download 87eda9de84448d1f82354d60eee3eb5f https://apollo8-f-pro.lib.cam.ac.uk/bitstreams/4848cfc7-a133-4ef4-ac33-0b6f6db92274/download f5ce3200ae7fd0fbdf63b701e453c57a https://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/