
<!DOCTYPE article
  PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.1 20151215//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.1" xml:lang="en"><front xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:c="http://ns.iop.org/namespaces/content" xmlns:fn="http://www.w3.org/2005/xpath-functions" xmlns:m="http://ns.iop.org/namespaces/meta"><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">aj</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">The Astronomical Journal</journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="AAS" xml:lang="en">AJ</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher" xml:lang="en">Astron. J.</abbrev-journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0004-6256</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1538-3881</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The American Astronomical Society</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">ajacad08</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3847/1538-3881/acad08</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="manuscript">acad08</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="other">AAS35189</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="section"><subject content-type="order">370</subject><subject content-type="heading">Laboratory Astrophysics, Instrumentation, Software, and Data</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Impact of Correlated Noise on the Mass Precision of Earth-analog Planets in Radial Velocity Surveys</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" xlink:type="simple"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0002-4927-9925</contrib-id><name name-style="western"><surname>Luhn</surname><given-names>Jacob K.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation01">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation02">2</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation03">3</xref><email>jluhn@uci.edu</email></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0001-6545-639X</contrib-id><name name-style="western"><surname>Ford</surname><given-names>Eric B.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation01">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation02">2</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation04">4</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation05">5</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation06">6</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0002-0951-2171</contrib-id><name name-style="western"><surname>Guo</surname><given-names>Zhao</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation01">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation02">2</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation07">7</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0002-1743-3684</contrib-id><name name-style="western"><surname>Gilbertson</surname><given-names>Christian</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation01">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation02">2</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation05">5</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0003-3848-3418</contrib-id><name name-style="western"><surname>Newman</surname><given-names>Patrick</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation08">8</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0002-8864-1667</contrib-id><name name-style="western"><surname>Plavchan</surname><given-names>Peter</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation08">8</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0002-0040-6815</contrib-id><name name-style="western"><surname>Burt</surname><given-names>Jennifer A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation09">9</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Teske</surname><given-names>Johanna</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation10">10</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><contrib-id authenticated="true" contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0002-5463-9980</contrib-id><name name-style="western"><surname>Gupta</surname><given-names>Arvind F.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation01">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="affiliation02">2</xref></contrib><aff id="affiliation01">
               <label>1</label>
Department of Astronomy &amp; Astrophysics, 525 Davey Laboratory, <institution xlink:type="simple">The Pennsylvania State University</institution>, University Park, PA 16802, <country>USA</country>; <ext-link ext-link-type="email" id="ajacad08em1" xlink:type="simple">jluhn@uci.edu</ext-link>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation02">
               <label>2</label>
Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds, 525 Davey Laboratory, <institution xlink:type="simple">The Pennsylvania State University</institution>, University Park, PA 16802, <country>USA</country>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation03">
               <label>3</label>
Department of Physics and Astronomy, <institution xlink:type="simple">The University of California</institution>, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, <country>USA</country>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation04">
               <label>4</label>
Center for Astrostatistics, 525 Davey Lab, <institution xlink:type="simple">The Pennsylvania State University</institution>, University Park, PA 16802, <country>USA</country>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation05">
               <label>5</label>
Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, 525 Davey Lab, <institution xlink:type="simple">The Pennsylvania State University</institution>, University Park, PA 16802, <country>USA</country>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation06">
               <label>6</label>
Institute for Advanced Study, <country>USA</country>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation07">
               <label>7</label>
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, <institution xlink:type="simple">University of Cambridge</institution>, Cambridge, <country>UK</country>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation08">
               <label>8</label>
Department of Physics and Astronomy, <institution xlink:type="simple">George Mason University</institution>, 4400 University Drive, MSN 3F3, Fairfax, VA 22030, <country>USA</country>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation09">
               <label>9</label>
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, <institution xlink:type="simple">California Institute of Technology</institution>, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, <country>USA</country>
            </aff><aff id="affiliation10">
               <label>10</label>

               <institution xlink:type="simple">Carnegie Earth and Planets Laboratory</institution>, 5241 Broad Branch Road, NW, Washington, DC 20015, <country>USA</country>
            </aff></contrib-group><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>01</day><month>3</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>10</day><month>02</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="open-access"><day>10</day><month>02</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>165</volume><issue>3</issue><elocation-id content-type="artnum">98</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>4</day><month>10</month><year>2021</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>11</day><month>3</month><year>2022</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>14</day><month>3</month><year>2022</year></date><date date-type="oa-requested"><day>14</day><month>03</month><year>2022</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2023. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><license license-type="cc-by" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>
                  <graphic content-type="print" orientation="portrait" position="float" xlink:href="https://cfn-live-content-bucket-iop-org.s3.amazonaws.com/journals/1538-3881/165/3/98/revision2/ajacad08license.eps?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAYDKQL6LTV7YY2HIK&amp;Expires=1676630526&amp;Signature=Rxk56QCm2OkLc0wO6Rb5v0EtqTQ%3D" xlink:type="simple"/>
                  <graphic content-type="online" orientation="portrait" position="float" xlink:href="https://cfn-live-content-bucket-iop-org.s3.amazonaws.com/journals/1538-3881/165/3/98/revision2/ajacad08license.gif?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAYDKQL6LTV7YY2HIK&amp;Expires=1676630526&amp;Signature=fhS0dwFREq70dHe9Rr0CHHaQ4u8%3D" xlink:type="simple"/>Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence</ext-link>. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://cfn-live-content-bucket-iop-org.s3.amazonaws.com/journals/1538-3881/165/3/98/revision2/aj_165_3_98.pdf?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAYDKQL6LTV7YY2HIK&amp;Expires=1676630526&amp;Signature=mBHNez9O6c88shue4KBcrSFrz4Y%3D" xlink:type="simple"/><self-uri content-type="epub" xlink:href="https://cfn-live-content-bucket-iop-org.s3.amazonaws.com/journals/1538-3881/165/3/98/revision2/aj_165_3_98.epub?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAYDKQL6LTV7YY2HIK&amp;Expires=1676630526&amp;Signature=rRxC%2FaLh1udK9JfcesP%2B%2FGufiqA%3D" xlink:type="simple"/><abstract><title>Abstract</title><p>Characterizing the masses and orbits of near-Earth-mass planets is crucial for interpreting observations from future direct imaging missions (e.g., HabEx, LUVOIR). Therefore, the Exoplanet Science Strategy report recommended further research so future extremely precise radial velocity surveys could contribute to the discovery and/or characterization of near-Earth-mass planets in the habitable zones of nearby stars prior to the launch of these future imaging missions. Newman et al. (2023) simulated such 10 yr surveys under various telescope architectures, demonstrating they can precisely measure the masses of potentially habitable Earth-mass planets in the absence of stellar variability. Here, we investigate the effect of stellar variability on the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the planet mass measurements in these simulations. We find that correlated noise due to active regions has the largest effect on the observed mass S/N, reducing the S/N by a factor of ∼5.5 relative to the no-variability scenario; granulation reduces by a factor of ∼3, while p-mode oscillations has little impact on the proposed survey strategies. We show that in the presence of correlated noise, 5 cm s<sup>−1</sup> instrumental precision offers little improvement over 10 cm s<sup>−1</sup> precision, highlighting the need to mitigate astrophysical variability. With our noise models, extending the survey to 15 yr doubles the number of Earth-analogs with mass S/N &gt; 10, and reaching this threshold for any Earth-analog orbiting a star &gt;0.76 <italic toggle="yes">M</italic>
               <sub>⊙</sub> in a 10 yr survey would require an increase in the number of observations per star from that in Newman et al. (2023).</p></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="author"><title content-type="vocab">unified-astronomy-thesaurus</title><compound-kwd><compound-kwd-part content-type="vocab-term-identifier">http://astrothesaurus.org/uat/489</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="term">Exoplanet detection methods</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="uat-code">489</compound-kwd-part></compound-kwd><compound-kwd><compound-kwd-part content-type="vocab-term-identifier">http://astrothesaurus.org/uat/1916</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="term">Time series analysis</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="uat-code">1916</compound-kwd-part></compound-kwd><compound-kwd><compound-kwd-part content-type="vocab-term-identifier">http://astrothesaurus.org/uat/1617</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="term">Stellar oscillations</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="uat-code">1617</compound-kwd-part></compound-kwd><compound-kwd><compound-kwd-part content-type="vocab-term-identifier">http://astrothesaurus.org/uat/2102</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="term">Stellar granulation</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="uat-code">2102</compound-kwd-part></compound-kwd><compound-kwd><compound-kwd-part content-type="vocab-term-identifier">http://astrothesaurus.org/uat/1580</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="term">Stellar activity</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="uat-code">1580</compound-kwd-part></compound-kwd><compound-kwd><compound-kwd-part content-type="vocab-term-identifier">http://astrothesaurus.org/uat/1332</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="term">Radial velocity</compound-kwd-part><compound-kwd-part content-type="uat-code">1332</compound-kwd-part></compound-kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><award-group xlink:type="simple"><funding-source xlink:type="simple">Heising-Simons Foundation (HSF)<named-content content-type="funder-id" xlink:type="simple">https://doi.org/10.13039/100014155</named-content>
               </funding-source><award-id>2019-1177</award-id></award-group><award-group xlink:type="simple"><funding-source xlink:type="simple">NASA ∣ NASA Exoplanet Research Program<named-content content-type="funder-id" xlink:type="simple">https://doi.org/10.13039/NNH22ZDA001N-XRP</named-content>
               </funding-source><award-id>80NSSC18K0443</award-id></award-group><award-group xlink:type="simple"><funding-source xlink:type="simple">Simons Foundation (SF)<named-content content-type="funder-id" xlink:type="simple">https://doi.org/10.13039/100000893</named-content>
               </funding-source><award-id>675601</award-id></award-group><award-group xlink:type="simple"><funding-source xlink:type="simple">National Science Foundation (NSF)<named-content content-type="funder-id" xlink:type="simple">https://doi.org/10.13039/100000001</named-content>
               </funding-source><award-id>DGE1255832</award-id></award-group></funding-group><counts><page-count count="20"/></counts><custom-meta-group><custom-meta xlink:type="simple"><meta-name>ccc</meta-name><meta-value>0004-6256/23/98+20$33.00</meta-value></custom-meta><custom-meta xlink:type="simple"><meta-name>crossmark</meta-name><meta-value>yes</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front></article>