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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="doi">10.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">GRL</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title xml:lang="en">Geophysical Research Letters</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher" xml:lang="en">Geophys Res Lett</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn publication-format="ppub">0094-8276</issn>
<issn publication-format="epub">1944-8007</issn>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1029/2025GL116436</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">GRL71653</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="society-id">2025GL116436</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Solid Earth</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">EXPLORATION GEOPHYSICS</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Gravity methods</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>GEODESY AND GRAVITY</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Transient deformation</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Tectonic deformation</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">GEODESY AND GRAVITY</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Time variable gravity</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Gravity anomalies and Earth structure</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Satellite geodesy: results</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Seismic cycle related deformations</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>HYDROLOGY</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Time series analysis</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">HYDROLOGY</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Estimation and forecasting</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Extreme events</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">INFORMATICS</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Forecasting</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Temporal analysis and representation</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">IONOSPHERE</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Forecasting</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Prediction</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Probabilistic forecasting</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Stochastic processes</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Time series analysis</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Ocean predictability and prediction</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Time series experiments</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">NATURAL HAZARDS</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Extreme events</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Monitoring, forecasting, prediction</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Probability distributions, heavy and fat‐tailed</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Scaling: spatial and temporal</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF ROCKS</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Permeability and porosity</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">POLICY SCIENCES</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">RADIO SCIENCE</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Interferometry</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Ionospheric physics</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>SEISMOLOGY</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Seismicity and tectonics</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">SEISMOLOGY</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Continental crust</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Earthquake dynamics</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Earthquake source observations</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Subduction zones</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">SPACE PLASMA PHYSICS</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Stochastic phenomena</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">SPACE WEATHER</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Forecasting</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="article-subject-classification" xml:lang="en">
<subject content-type="cross-term">Policy</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="overline" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Research Letter</subject>
</subj-group>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Research Letter</subject>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading" xml:lang="en">
<subject>Solid Earth</subject>
</subj-group>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en">Seismic Velocity Variations, Ground Deformation and the Role of Fluids During a Low‐Energy Seismic Swarm</article-title>
<alt-title alt-title-type="left-running-head">Mandler et al.</alt-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib id="grl71653-cr-0001" contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
<name>
<surname>Mandler</surname>
<given-names>Eugenio</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2928-0566</contrib-id>
<email>eugenio.mandler@ingv.it</email>
<xref ref-type="corresp" rid="correspondenceTo">*</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="grl71653-aff-0001">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="grl71653-cr-0002" contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Zaccarelli</surname>
<given-names>Lucia</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4053-7625</contrib-id>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="grl71653-aff-0001">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="grl71653-cr-0003" contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Nespoli</surname>
<given-names>Massimo</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3875-0352</contrib-id>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="grl71653-aff-0002">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="grl71653-cr-0004" contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Belardinelli</surname>
<given-names>Maria Elina</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7653-5090</contrib-id>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="grl71653-aff-0002">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="grl71653-cr-0005" contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Pintori</surname>
<given-names>Francesco</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7465-6297</contrib-id>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="grl71653-aff-0001">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="grl71653-cr-0006" contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Serpelloni</surname>
<given-names>Enrico</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1822-403X</contrib-id>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="grl71653-aff-0001">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="grl71653-cr-0007" contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Gualandi</surname>
<given-names>Adriano</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3100-8932</contrib-id>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="grl71653-aff-0003">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib id="grl71653-cr-0008" contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Chiaraluce</surname>
<given-names>Lauro</given-names>
</name>
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9697-6504</contrib-id>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="grl71653-aff-0004">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff content-type="private-address" id="grl71653-aff-0001">
<label>
<sup>1</sup>
</label>

<institution>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)</institution>

<city>Bologna</city>
 <country country="IT">Italy</country>

</aff>
<aff id="grl71653-aff-0002">
<label>
<sup>2</sup>
</label>

<named-content content-type="organisation-division">Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Augusto Righi”</named-content>

<institution>Alma Mater Studiorum Universitá di Bologna</institution>

<city>Bologna</city>
 <country country="IT">Italy</country>

</aff>
<aff id="grl71653-aff-0003">
<label>
<sup>3</sup>
</label>

<named-content content-type="organisation-division">Department of Earth Science</named-content>

<institution>University of Cambridge</institution>

<city>Cambdridge</city>
 <country country="GB">UK</country>

</aff>
<aff content-type="private-address" id="grl71653-aff-0004">
<label>
<sup>4</sup>
</label>

<institution>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)</institution>

<city>Roma</city>
 <country country="IT">Italy</country>

</aff>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="correspondenceTo"><label>*</label>

<bold>Correspondence to:</bold><break/>
E. Mandler,<break/>
<email>eugenio.mandler@ingv.it</email><break/>

</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date date-type="pub" publication-format="electronic"><day>27</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date><pub-date date-type="pub" publication-format="print"><day>28</day>
<month>01</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date><volume>53</volume>
<issue seq="20">2</issue>
<issue-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1029/grl.v53.2</issue-id>
<elocation-id>e2025GL116436</elocation-id>
<history>

<date date-type="rev-recd">
<day>22</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2025</year>
</date>

<date date-type="received">
<day>18</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2025</year>
</date>

<date date-type="accepted">
<day>21</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2025</year>
</date>

</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement content-type="issue-copyright">© 2026. The Author(s). Geophysical Research Letters published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-statement content-type="article-copyright">© 2026. The Author(s).</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>© 2026. The Author(s).</copyright-holder>
<license>
<ali:license_ref>http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ali:license_ref>
<license-p>This is an open access article under the terms of the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution</ext-link> License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract xml:lang="en" abstract-type="main">
<title>Abstract</title>
<p xml:lang="en">On March <mml:math id="jats-math-1" display="inline">
<mml:semantics>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>9</mml:mn>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mi mathvariant="normal">th</mml:mi>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex"> $9\mathrm{th}$</mml:annotation>
</mml:semantics>
</mml:math>
, 2023, three small earthquakes <mml:math id="jats-math-2" display="inline">
<mml:semantics>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mo stretchy="false">(</mml:mo>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mn>3.8</mml:mn>
<mml:mo>≤</mml:mo>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>M</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>≤</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>4.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:mo stretchy="false">)</mml:mo>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex"> $(3.8\le {M}_{w}\le 4.5)$</mml:annotation>
</mml:semantics>
</mml:math>
 occurred near Umbertide (Central Italy), within 4 hours. Analyzing seismic ambient noise in the frequency band 0.1–1 Hz from six seismometers within 20 km of the <italic>M</italic><sub>
<italic>w</italic>
</sub>
 4.5, we detect a significant drop in seismic velocity at the time of occurrence of the seismic sequence. A strain sensitivity analysis suggests that crustal damage was primarily caused by the passage of seismic waves, likely enhanced by the presence of fluids. Analyzing geodetic data from recently installed strainmeters and pore pressure transducers, we highlight the role of elastic strain and fluids in driving deformation during this sequence, suggesting the presence of a pressure source that strongly influences the deformation pattern. We find that fluid‐induced stress may cause the reloading of a few kPa of a co‐seismic asperity within hours, unveiling the contribution of pore pressure sources to the stress budget of seismogenic faults.</p>
</abstract>
<abstract xml:lang="en" abstract-type="executive-summary">
<title>Plain Language Summary</title>
<p xml:lang="en">On March 9, 2023, a sequence of small earthquakes <mml:math id="jats-math-3" display="inline">
<mml:semantics>
<mml:mrow>
<mml:mfenced open="(" close=")" separators="">
<mml:mrow>
<mml:msub>
<mml:mi>M</mml:mi>
<mml:mi>w</mml:mi>
</mml:msub>
<mml:mo>≤</mml:mo>
<mml:mn>4.5</mml:mn>
</mml:mrow>
</mml:mfenced>
</mml:mrow>
<mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex"> $\left({M}_{w}\le 4.5\right)$</mml:annotation>
</mml:semantics>
</mml:math>
 occurred in the northern Apennines (Italy). Although the events were relatively small, we observed a clear and sudden reduction in the speed of seismic waves traveling through the Earth's crust. This drop is a sign of physical changes in the rocks, likely caused by the shaking of the earthquakes and the presence of underground fluids. We combined data from seismic sensors, strainmeters, and instruments that measure underground water pressure. Together, these observations showed that underground fluids may have amplified the effects of the earthquakes and contributed to how the ground moved afterward. The data also suggest that fluids may have moved more easily through the crust after the shaking, changing the pressure conditions in ways that might help trigger further seismic activity. Our findings show that even small earthquakes can cause important changes underground when fluids are involved. Monitoring these changes using a mix of seismic and geodetic tools helps scientists better understand how earthquakes work and how fluid‐filled faults behave.</p>
</abstract>
<abstract xml:lang="en" abstract-type="short">
<title>Key Points</title>
<p xml:lang="en">

<list list-type="bullet">
<list-item>
<p xml:lang="en">We exploit a dense near‐fault observatory network of seismo‐geodetic instruments to resolve faint signals of a low energy <italic>M</italic><sub>
<italic>w</italic>
</sub>
 ≤ 4.5 swarm</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p xml:lang="en">We report on the crustal damaging associated with the earthquakes and we infer possible fluids related effects in enhancing such damaging</p>
</list-item>
<list-item>
<p xml:lang="en">We model the deformation and pore pressure between the two largest events, comparing it with the measurements at borehole strainmeter sites</p>
</list-item>
</list>

</p>
</abstract>
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<award-group id="funding-0001">
<funding-source>

<institution-wrap>
<institution>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia</institution>
<institution-id institution-id-type="doi">10.13039/501100008034</institution-id>
</institution-wrap>

</funding-source>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="funding-0002">
<funding-source>

<institution-wrap>
<institution>European Research Council</institution>
</institution-wrap>

</funding-source>
<award-id>835012</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
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</article>