erlERLNALEnvironmental Research LettersERLEnviron. Res. Lett.1748-9326IOP Publishingerlac13ef10.1088/1748-9326/ac13efac13efERL-111061.R2LetterBetting on the best case: higher end warming is underrepresented in research0000-0002-7296-8008JehnFlorian U1*florian.u.jehn@umwelt.uni-giessen.deSchneiderMarie10000-0002-3854-9635WangJason R20000-0002-3816-564XKempLuke30000-0001-9720-1076BreuerLutz14 Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, 35390 Giessen, Germany Independent Researcher, Edmonton, Canada Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, 14 Mill Lane, Cambridge, United Kingdom Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Senckenbergstrasse 3, 35392 Giessen, Germany

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82021297202129720211680840368320212720211372021962021© 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd2021 Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.Abstract

We compare the probability of different warming rates to their mentions in IPCC reports through text mining. We find that there is a substantial mismatch between likely warming rates and research coverage. 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios are substantially overrepresented. More likely higher end warming scenarios of 3 °C and above, despite potential catastrophic impacts, are severely neglected.

higher end warmingclimate changeIPCCexistential riskBundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklunghttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006456 57526248ccc1748-9326/21/084036+5$33.00printedPrinted in the UKcrossmarkyes